It just keeps getting better, doesn’t it?
First we heard that Biden will easily defeat Trump in the polling. Then we heard that Trump will win only if the economy stays strong. But now we’re hearing that Trump will win, even if the economy tanks?
According to the Western Journal:
The general assumption, according to most election models that show President Donald Trump winning re-election, has been that it all goes out the window if there’s a recession.
Trump’s fate is tied to the economy, after all, and once that comes tumbling down, the president is done for.
Not so fast, say the folks at Oxford Economics. The forecasting and quantitative analysis firm says that, barring massive economic upheaval, the president will likely win a second term in office.
According to Bloomberg, Oxford is the most sanguine of the forecasting firms whose work they examined, at least if you’re a Trump supporter. Ray Fair of Yale and Moody’s Analytics both see Trump winning — if the status quo is maintained economically, that is.
Oxford Economics went further. According to an October report, the firm thinks that even a recession wouldn’t hurt Trump that much.
Even a recession won’t do anything to stop Trump in 2020?
So, do you think that maybe the media will stop trying to tank the economy after hearing that it won’t do much to stop the Trump Train 2020?
But then, they’ve been trying for 4 years, and they haven’t been able to do much. The economy is so good, in fact, that economic models are showing that Trump could get as many as 351 electoral votes this coming election.
Moody’s three economic models project at least 289 electoral votes for Trump and as many a 351, per Zandi.
“Our ‘pocketbook’ model is the most economically driven of the three,” Moody’s reports. “If voters were to vote primarily on the basis of their pocketbooks, the president would steamroll the competition. This shows the importance that prevailing economic sentiment at the household level could hold in the next election.”
Trump defeated Hillary Clinton in the electoral vote 304-227, and economic indicators suggest President Trump is going to win 55% of the popular vote barring a “significant downturn” in the economy, according to Oxford Economics, The Washington Post reported.
“While a wide range of issues have influenced presidential elections over the last few decades, from healthcare and foreign policy, to taxation and government spending, one factor has been constant: It’s the economy, stupid,” Oxford Economics’ Greg Daco and James Watson wrote last week, per the Post.
So one could say that everyone is forecasting something different, just like it was forecasted that Trump would lose in 2016… so how can you trust what you hear?
That’s fair… but the sad news for Democrats is that this model has an accuracy rate of 16 out of 18, going all the way back to 1948.
Analysts at the firm see a 5-point win for Trump in the popular vote, even in the case of a recession, thanks to low unemployment, weak inflation, and relatively stable income gains.
Their model accurately predicted the popular vote in 16 of the last 18 elections, going back to 1948. They missed Richard Nixon winning in 1968 and Jimmy Carter in 1976.
The only way a Democrat would win the popular vote is if signs of a severe recession emerged next year, triggered by rising tariffs, lower corporate profits, and a stock market downturn, Oxford’s Daco and Watson said.
But for that to happen, unemployment would need to rise to 6.4% from 3.6% now, inflation-adjusted disposable incomes to fall and inflation to flat-line with the Republican only just losing, they said.
It’s unlikely the economy will tank, and practically impossible for the unemployment rate to double in one year…
Do you think Democrats can see the writing on the wall?