New Poll Shows Trump’s Lead Widening after the Debate

SC Dornsife / LA Times Presidential Election “Daybreak” Poll reported Friday that Donald Trump is widening his lead to 5 points after Monday’s debate.

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Republican Donald Trump widened his lead over Democrat Hillary Clinton in the 2016 USC Dornsife / LA Times Presidential Election Poll following the first debate. Mr. Trump leads Mrs. Clinton 47.3% to 41.7% in the Presidential Election “Daybreak” Poll, a model developed by the team responsible for the successful 2012 RAND Continuous Presidential Election Poll.

According to an update by the pollster, Mr. Trump’s 5-point lead is statistically significant for the following reason:

Update: As of Monday September 19th, the Daybreak Poll’s charts will reflect a change in the way we compute the “area of uncertainty” represented by the gray band in each chart. This change means that candidate votes that are about 5 or 6 percentage points apart will be shown to be statistically significant (depending on sample size and how much variation there is in the voting).

Previously, the calculations required an interval of +/5.5 percentage points for significance in our election forecast, which we have determined was too conservative. Still, “mainstream” media pundits have sought to play down the Republican’s advantage in the LA Times Poll, something the People’s Pundit believes is not yet a proven credible analysis.


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